Its
people were among the first to suffer at the hands of al-Qaeda; they have the
resilience and resources to put this latest attack behind them.
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There is a dreadful symmetry to the terrorist atrocity in Kenya. The
outrage in Westgate shopping centre shows not only the enduring ability of
al-Qaeda’s brethren to kill and maim in the teeth of the biggest counter‑terrorism
campaign in history, it reminds us that Nairobi was the place where Osama bin
Laden’s network first demonstrated its lethal potency. Almost exactly 15
years ago, a truck bomb exploded two miles from the site of the Westgate mall.
The heavily fortified US embassy was the nominal target, but a vulnerable
nearby tower block bore the brunt of the blast. For a terrible instant, the sky
above the crowded streets of central Nairobi rained shards of jagged glass,
blinding scores of bystanders. I happened to visit Nairobi a week later and the
gaping shell of the ruined tower block, devoid of a single intact window,
marked the aftermath of a massacre that had claimed 212 lives. So Kenya
has already suffered one of the heaviest blows that terrorism can inflict – and
achieved a recovery. Despite today’s agony, the country is strong enough to do
so again.
Kenyans live under a terrible political system, riddled with tribalism
and corruption, symbolised by the fact that their vice-president, William Ruto,
is now standing trial at The Hague for alleged crimes against humanity. The
International Criminal Court has given him a week’s leave from the dock to fly
home to deal with the current crisis. The unusual spectacle of the men who run
Kenya flitting between The Hague and their offices in Nairobi may soon become
familiar: President Uhuru Kenyatta will go on trial before the ICC in November,
charged with the same offences. But Kenya’s immense potential somehow
manages to survive the plunder and misrule of its leaders – and it will
similarly outlast the threat of terrorism.
True, the country’s economy is dangerously dependent on the goodwill of
outsiders, whether tourists or investors, and some people will understandably
react to the scenes on their television screens by cancelling a holiday. Many
others, however, will recognise that the Westgate attack is just the kind of
incident that, frankly, could have happened in dozens of capitals across the
world, including London.
If the past is any guide, Kenya’s vital tourist industry – the country’s
biggest source of hard currency – will now suffer a temporary dip, before
achieving a recovery. Al-Qaeda’s attack on Nairobi in 1998 was actually
followed by a sustained boom in visitor numbers. In that year, Kenya recorded
900,000 tourist and business arrivals; by 2006, this total had risen by over 75
per cent to hit 1.6 million.
Since that peak, the number of visitors has fallen, dropping to 1
million in 2008, when weeks of violence after a disputed election claimed at
least 1,300 lives. But even after that bloodshed, the number of arrivals
rebounded, reaching 1.3 million in 2010 and staying at that level ever since.
Look more closely and the visitor numbers confirm that Kenya is a special place
in the eyes of many Britons. Come terrorist attack or post-election bloodbath,
British citizens always comprise the biggest single group of visitors, usually
by a wide margin. Of the 1.3 million foreigners who arrived in Kenya in 2011,
more than 200,000 came from Britain, well ahead of the next biggest contingent,
120,000 Americans.
Why is this so? From the Rift Valley to the Maasai Mara, Kenya still has
magnificent wilderness. But the country is tied to Britain by language, history
and tradition; it is also a place where 20,000 Britons live. Many of those on
the plane from Heathrow to Jomo Kenyatta International Airport will not be
tourists but people who see themselves as going home. Meanwhile, trade
between Britain and Kenya totals at least £1 billion and about half of the
companies listed on the Nairobi stock exchange are linked to the UK in some
way. This year, the Department for International Development will also give the
country £150 million of aid.
On a day like this, it may seem odd to point out the obvious: that all
this represents a vote of confidence in Kenya. When al-Qaeda left its
bloodstained calling card in 1998, it would have seemed far-fetched for Nairobi
to have a world-class facility such as Westgate shopping mall. The fact that
investors were willing to build one, despite the endemic problems posed by
corruption and collapsing infrastructure, showed their belief that Kenya’s
rapidly growing population of 40 million represented a neglected consumer
market. Since then, the country has achieved annual economic growth of 5 per
cent – not enough to break out of poverty, but not bad either. That growth is
based on a diverse economy, encompassing commercial agriculture and
manufacturing as well as tourism.
By virtue of geography, Kenya serves as the commercial hub for East and
Central Africa, providing the region’s biggest port at Mombasa and the key
trade route for a string of landlocked countries, ranging from South Sudan to
Burundi. China has now signed a £3.2 billion deal to rebuild Kenya’s transport
links, including the British-built railways. And last year oil was discovered
in the arid Turkana region, meaning that Kenya is set to join the world’s
select club of crude exporters by 2016.
If Kenya’s national infrastructure gets a makeover courtesy of China,
and the nation starts to export oil and make full use of its natural position
as the key link for African trade, it has a real chance to break free from
poverty. That was true before 15 fanatics began massacring innocents in
Westgate mall on Saturday – and it remains true today.
But Kenya’s geography is also a curse: its largely unguarded 430-mile
border with Somalia helps to explain Nairobi’s current ordeal. The greatest
dangers to Kenya come not from international terrorism, however, but from
within, notably from a corrupt political system that serves as tragic
reflection of a society scarred by ethnic division.
“Under all the layers, at the base of the giant mound, lies the same
solid bedrock: Kenyans’ dislocated notion of themselves,” writes Michela Wrong
in It’s Our Turn to Eat. “The various forms of graft cannot be
separated from the people’s vision of existence as a merciless conflict in
which only ethnic preference offers hope of survival.”
Mr Kenyatta is an authentic product of the political system bequeathed
by his father Jomo, the first president after independence in 1963. Like the
Italians and the Lebanese, however, Kenyans have mastered the ability to
prosper and succeed despite their politicians. And Mr Kenyatta responded to the
Westgate outrage with robust moral clarity of a kind that has fallen out of use
in the West. “We shall not relent on the war on terror: we shall continue that
fight and we urge all people of goodwill throughout the world to join us and to
ensure that we uproot this evil,” he said.
In 2011,
Kenya sent 5,000 troops into southern Somalia to secure the border area after a
series of attacks. The Kenyan army has taken the offensive, recently capturing
the vital port of Kismayo from al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda affiliate that claims
responsibility for the Westgate attack. Under pressure in its homeland,
al-Shabaab has threatened to retaliate against any country that sends troops
into Somalia. Kenya’s military presence makes it an obvious target. But Mr
Kenyatta, who inherited the Somalia operation from his predecessor, had a
defiant response: “If their thought is that this was to intimidate us, it has
only increased our commitment to fight and win this war.”
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The details and the pictures
that will emerge from Nairobi in the next few days will be harrowing, but do
not judge by appearances. Kenya’s story is one of resilience, not fragility: it
has recovered from al-Qaeda’s ravages in the past and will do so again.
